Frequently Asked Questions
Learn how Distribution Markets work and how to trade effectively
Distribution Markets are a new type of prediction market designed for events whose outcomes are continuous—meaning the result could be any number, not just a discrete "yes" or "no".
Unlike traditional markets that force traders to choose between pre-set options, Distribution Markets allow participants to express their beliefs as a full probability distribution (a curve) over the entire range of potential outcomes.
This mechanism enables participants to reach a consensus on the complete probability distribution of a continuous variable, while still allowing them to profit by moving the shared view in the correct direction.
Key Concepts
μ (Mu) - Mean
The center of the probability distribution. Your predicted price.
σ (Sigma) - Standard Deviation
The spread of the distribution. Lower σ = more confident prediction.
Position Size
How much of your belief to express (0-100%). Higher = more exposure.
Collateral
USDC posted to cover your maximum potential loss on a position.