Frequently Asked Questions
Learn how Distribution Markets work and how to trade effectively
Arcade.xyz is a new kind of prediction market where you don't just bet "yes" or "no"—you bet on WHERE you think the price will land.
Traditional markets are all-or-nothing. If you bet "BTC above $100K" and it hits $99,999, you lose everything. That's game over.
On Arcade.xyz, you express your prediction as a curve (a distribution). If the final price lands near your prediction, you win proportionally. The closer you are, the more you earn. No more losing everything because you were $1 off.
Quick Reference
μ (Mu) - Your Target
Where you think the price will land. The bullseye of your bet.
σ (Sigma) - Your Confidence
How sure you are. Lower σ = more confident = higher risk/reward.
Collateral
USDC you put up to cover your max loss. Fully onchain, no IOUs.
The Golden Rule
Be close, get paid. The closer to the final price, the more you win.